International Journal of Science, Engineering and TechnologyAuthors: Monish Patil
Abstract: This research paper investigates whether lunar phases have a measurable impact on Bitcoin price movements, a hypothesis that remains controversial within both financial and scientific communities. By reviewing empirical backtests, academic literature, and real-world trading data, the study seeks to determine if moon phase trading strategies can consistently generate profits in the cryptocurrency market. Several backtests show that strategies aligned with lunar cycles—such as buying during new moons and selling during full moons—have, at times, outperformed simple buy-and-hold approaches, especially in bullish market conditions. For example, some studies report annualized returns exceeding 30% when applying moon phase filters to Bitcoin trades. However, these results are often accompanied by high volatility and significant drawdowns, raising questions about their practical reliability. Academic research in traditional markets has produced mixed findings, with some evidence of modest lunar effects on stock returns but little consensus on causality. In the context of Bitcoin, which is heavily influenced by investor sentiment and speculative trading, it is plausible that psychological factors tied to lunar cycles could temporarily affect market behavior. Nevertheless, the statistical significance of these patterns is debatable, and no robust causal mechanism has been established. As a result, while moon phase trading strategies may offer intriguing signals for swing traders, they should be viewed as supplementary tools rather than standalone systems. The broader evidence suggests that market fundamentals and technical indicators remain far more reliable for consistent trading performance.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15782115
